Bookmaker Consensus and Agreement for the UEFA Champions League 2008/09

Bookmakers odds are an easily available source of ``prospective" information that is thus often employed for forecasting the outcome of sports events. To investigate the statistical properties of bookmakers odds from a variety of bookmakers for a number of different potential outcomes of a sports event, a class of mixed-effects models is explored, providing information about both consensus and (dis)agreement across bookmakers. In an empirical study for the UEFA Champions League, the most prestigious football club competition in Europe, model selection yields a simple and intuitive model with team-specific means for capturing consensus and team-specific standard deviations reflecting agreement across bookmakers. The resulting consensus forecast performs well in practice, exhibiting high correlation with the actual tournament outcome. Furthermore, the teams' agreement can be shown to be strongly correlated with the predicted consensus and can thus be incorporated in a more parsimonious model for agreement while preserving the same consensus fit.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematic

Software Microbenchmarking in the Cloud. How Bad is it Really?

Rigorous performance engineering traditionally assumes measuring on bare-metal environments to control for as many confounding factors as possible. Unfortunately, some researchers and practitioners might not have access, knowledge, or funds to operate dedicated performance-testing hardware, making public clouds an attractive alternative. However, shared public cloud environments are inherently unpredictable in terms of the system performance they provide. In this study, we explore the effects of cloud environments on the variability of performance test results and to what extent slowdowns can still be reliably detected even in a public cloud. We focus on software microbenchmarks as an example of performance tests and execute extensive experiments on three different well-known public cloud services (AWS, GCE, and Azure) using three different cloud instance types per service. We also compare the results to a hosted bare-metal offering from IBM Bluemix. In total, we gathered more than 4.5 million unique microbenchmarking data points from benchmarks written in Java and Go. We find that the variability of results differs substantially between benchmarks and instance types (by a coefficient of variation from 0.03% to > 100%). However, executing test and control experiments on the same instances (in randomized order) allows us to detect slowdowns of 10% or less with high confidence, using state-of-the-art statistical tests (i.e., Wilcoxon rank-sum and overlapping bootstrapped confidence intervals). Finally, our results indicate that Wilcoxon rank-sum manages to detect smaller slowdowns in cloud environments

Applying test case prioritization to software microbenchmarks

Regression testing comprises techniques which are applied during software evolution to uncover faults effectively and efficiently. While regression testing is widely studied for functional tests, performance regression testing, e.g., with software microbenchmarks, is hardly investigated. Applying test case prioritization (TCP), a regression testing technique, to software microbenchmarks may help capturing large performance regressions sooner upon new versions. This may especially be beneficial for microbenchmark suites, because they take considerably longer to execute than unit test suites. However, it is unclear whether traditional unit testing TCP techniques work equally well for software microbenchmarks. In this paper, we empirically study coverage-based TCP techniques, employing total and additional greedy strategies, applied to software microbenchmarks along multiple parameterization dimensions, leading to 54 unique technique instantiations. We find that TCP techniques have a mean APFD-P (average percentage of fault-detection on performance) effectiveness between 0.54 and 0.71 and are able to capture the three largest performance changes after executing 29% to 66% of the whole microbenchmark suite. Our efficiency analysis reveals that the runtime overhead of TCP varies considerably depending on the exact parameterization. The most effective technique has an overhead of 11% of the total microbenchmark suite execution time, making TCP a viable option for performance regression testing. The results demonstrate that the total strategy is superior to the additional strategy. Finally, dynamic-coverage techniques should be favored over static-coverage techniques due to their acceptable analysis overhead; however, in settings where the time for prioritzation is limited, static-coverage techniques provide an attractive alternative

Applying test case prioritization to software microbenchmarks

Regression testing comprises techniques which are applied during software evolution to uncover faults effectively and efficiently. While regression testing is widely studied for functional tests, performance regression testing, e.g., with software microbenchmarks, is hardly investigated. Applying test case prioritization (TCP), a regression testing technique, to software microbenchmarks may help capturing large performance regressions sooner upon new versions. This may especially be beneficial for microbenchmark suites, because they take considerably longer to execute than unit test suites. However, it is unclear whether traditional unit testing TCP techniques work equally well for software microbenchmarks. In this paper, we empirically study coverage-based TCP techniques, employing total and additional greedy strategies, applied to software microbenchmarks along multiple parameterization dimensions, leading to 54 unique technique instantiations. We find that TCP techniques have a mean APFD-P (average percentage of fault-detection on performance) effectiveness between 0.54 and 0.71 and are able to capture the three largest performance changes after executing 29% to 66% of the whole microbenchmark suite. Our efficiency analysis reveals that the runtime overhead of TCP varies considerably depending on the exact parameterization. The most effective technique has an overhead of 11% of the total microbenchmark suite execution time, making TCP a viable option for performance regression testing. The results demonstrate that the total strategy is superior to the additional strategy. Finally, dynamic-coverage techniques should be favored over static-coverage techniques due to their acceptable analysis overhead; however, in settings where the time for prioritzation is limited, static-coverage techniques provide an attractive alternative

Electronic Correlations in Vanadium Revealed by Electron-Positron Annihilation Measurements

The electronic structure of vanadium measured by Angular Correlation of electron-positron Annihilation Radiation (ACAR) is compared with the predictions of the combined Density Functional and Dynamical Mean-Field Theory (DMFT). Reconstructing the momentum density from five 2D projections we were able to determine the full Fermi surface and found excellent agreement with the DMFT calculations. In particular, we show that the local, dynamic self-energy corrections contribute to the anisotropy of the momentum density and need to be included to explain the experimental results